That means the Kremlin is trying to share the war’s responsibility with them and to prevent their probable consolidation into anti-Kremlin and anti-war sentiments. In this way, they are becoming volunteer military de jure. Interestingly, the mobilized Russians receive the status of contracted soldiers, therefore, they are forced to sign a contract. Consequently, the Kremlin is searching for any possible way to increase its manpower significantly in the short term. For instance, some evidences indicates that Russian public service centers have been unofficially ordered to give men between the ages of 20 and 34 their mobilization draft notices (, September 29). However, if young Russians will try to avoid the upcoming conscription as they did during the spring of 2022, the mobilization will most likely become a permanent, but less intensive, process that will be extended for months ( Riddle, August 19). That also means that future efforts toward mobilization will involve increased government coercion. That means that further waves of mobilization are inevitable within the current political circumstances, and the Kremlin may even try to combine future waves with fall conscription, thus infusing more chaos into the recruiting process, regional governance and economy, especially if the combat situation continues to worsen for Russia. Nevertheless, even high-end estimates are definitely far off from the announced 300,000 reservists planned to be mobilized ( Interfax, September 21), despite the fact that local recruitment centers are mobilizing everyone they can, including those who formally cannot be mobilized at all ( Kommersant, September 24 63.ru, September 27). This range is based on fragmentary data from different regions of Russia and will be updated as new information appears ( Ura.news, September 23 Business-class.su, September 27 Kostroma.today, September 27, September 27 Bfm.ru, September 28). In this way, it would be hard for the recruitment centers-the military commissar’s offices-to combine two processes simultaneously, considering that the planned quota for the upcoming conscription is 120,000 recruits ( 59.ru, September 29, September 28).Ĭurrently, the total number of people who have already been mobilized is estimated at anywhere from several tens of thousands to less than 100,000. Although the mobilization does not have any clear schedule, it is possible to presume that the first wave of this process will be completed by October 1, as fall conscription for 2022 is starting on that day. The first week of the “partial mobilization” in Russia, which started on September 21, has demonstrated rampant bureaucratic chaos, a lack of planning and a deficit of training facilities and even basic equipment ( 72.ru, September 26 Kommersant, September 27 Sekret Firmy, September 28 Ura.ru, September 29, September 29).
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |